2026 · Week 5

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

12·17

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapJets
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.011
  • 42.7%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.175EPA / rush-0.148
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -1.22CPOE+5.33
  • 32.8%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.91
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 10–6 since 1999

NYJ have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. NYJ are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10CLE @ NYJ20–27NYJ
2023 · W17NYJ @ CLE20–37CLE
2022 · W2NYJ @ CLE31–30NYJ
2020 · W16CLE @ NYJ16–23NYJ
2019 · W2CLE @ NYJ23–3CLE
2018 · W3NYJ @ CLE17–21CLE
2017 · W5NYJ @ CLE17–14NYJ
2016 · W8NYJ @ CLE31–28NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NYJ
CLEQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:49890Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 9:171239Field goal3–7
NYJQ1 3:273-11Punt3–7
CLEQ1 1:4733Punt3–7
NYJQ1 0:56525Punt3–7
CLEQ2 13:24831Field goal6–7
NYJQ2 10:1430Punt6–7
CLEQ2 8:323-4Punt6–7
NYJQ2 6:131131Punt6–7
CLEQ2 1:22631Punt6–7
NYJQ3 15:00625Punt6–7
CLEQ3 11:4732Punt6–7
NYJQ3 10:111050Turnover6–7
CLEQ3 5:4938Punt6–7
NYJQ3 3:38927Field goal6–10
CLEQ4 14:37612Punt6–10
NYJQ4 12:0839Punt6–10
CLEQ4 10:381072Touchdown12–10
NYJQ4 6:1543Turnover12–10
CLEQ4 4:1340Turnover12–10
NYJQ4 3:52323Touchdown12–17
CLEQ4 3:0142Punt12–17
NYJQ4 2:0636Punt12–17
CLEQ4 1:4143Turnover12–17
NYJQ4 0:4400End of half12–17

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson15/3315510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinshon Judkins14443.10
Deshaun Watson6406.70
Raheim Sanders3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Bond37740
Denzel Boston37461
Jerry Jeudy37190
Quinshon Judkins3460
KC Concepcion1150
Harold Fannin Jr.1440
Raheim Sanders1110
Jaleel McLaughlin0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith17/3018210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Braelon Allen241164.81
Isaiah Davis284.00
Geno Smith571.40
Isaiah Williams133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson7111041
Tim Patrick23260
Mason Taylor33240
Isaiah Williams12160
Isaiah Davis1290
Kenyon Sadiq2330
Jelani Woods0100
Braelon Allen1400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.85