Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+17.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Brownsedge mapJets
- -0.206EPA / play+0.126
- 43.1%Success rate48.4%
- -0.257EPA / dropback+0.338
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.038
- 7.8%Explosive rate10.9%
- +10.32CPOE+12.84
- 12.5%Third-down rate18.2%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.11Points / drive2.08
- 3.9%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. NYJ are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+15.44
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+17.42