2019 · Week 2

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

23·3

Jets

New York

QB Trevor Siemian

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 72°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CLE -6.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapJets
  • -0.027EPA / play-0.155
  • 41.3%Success rate37.3%
  • +0.025EPA / dropback-0.119
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.216
  • 10.1%Explosive rate6.9%
  • -3.23CPOE+0.20
  • 36.3%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate48.5%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.20
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 10–6 since 1999

NYJ have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. NYJ are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CLE @ NYJ12–17NYJ
2025 · W10CLE @ NYJ20–27NYJ
2023 · W17NYJ @ CLE20–37CLE
2022 · W2NYJ @ CLE31–30NYJ
2020 · W16CLE @ NYJ16–23NYJ
2018 · W3NYJ @ CLE17–21CLE
2017 · W5NYJ @ CLE17–14NYJ
2016 · W8NYJ @ CLE31–28NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NYJ
CLEQ1 15:001076Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 10:273-2Punt3–0
CLEQ1 8:4767Field goal6–0
NYJQ1 6:1534Punt6–0
CLEQ1 5:18518Punt6–0
NYJQ1 2:387-1Punt6–0
CLEQ2 13:23648Touchdown13–0
NYJQ2 10:161342Field goal13–3
CLEQ2 2:56625Punt13–3
NYJQ2 0:5732Punt13–3
CLEQ2 0:35425Field goal16–3
NYJQ3 15:0030Punt16–3
CLEQ3 12:4936Punt16–3
NYJQ3 11:0139Punt16–3
CLEQ3 9:0136Punt16–3
NYJQ3 7:10860Turnover on downs22–3
CLEQ3 3:43189Touchdown23–3
NYJQ3 3:3238Punt23–3
CLEQ3 2:0738Punt23–3
NYJQ3 0:36645Turnover on downs23–3
CLEQ4 12:50628Turnover23–3
NYJQ4 9:50652Turnover23–3
CLEQ4 6:591039Punt23–3
NYJQ4 1:05643End of half23–3

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield19/3532511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb18623.41
D'Ernest Johnson382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.6101611
Damion Ratley23500
D'Ernest Johnson34420
Nick Chubb44360
Jarvis Landry37320
Demetrius Harris1140
Pharaoh Brown0100
David Njoku0100
Taywan Taylor0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Luke Falk20/2519800
Trevor Siemian3/6300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell21683.20
Ty Montgomery3258.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen46810
Le'Veon Bell1010610
Jamison Crowder46400
Ty Montgomery33150
Josh Bellamy1250
Ryan Griffin0100
Demaryius Thomas12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.43