Closing spread
CLE -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.155
- 41.3%Success rate37.3%
- +0.025EPA / dropback-0.119
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.216
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.9%
- -3.23CPOE+0.20
- 36.3%Third-down rate30.8%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate48.5%
- 1.80Points / drive1.20
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. NYJ are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 19/35 | 325 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 6 | 10 | 161 | 1 |
| Damion Ratley | 2 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Falk | 20/25 | 198 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 3/6 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 21 | 68 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 10 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.43