Closing spread
CLE -6.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.230EPA / play-0.127
- 35.6%Success rate39.3%
- -0.250EPA / dropback-0.131
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.121
- 6.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- -5.18CPOE-5.66
- 25.5%Third-down rate32.3%
- 39.2%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.01Points / drive1.56
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CLE are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 32/45 | 261 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 13 | 84 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 9 | 9 | 42 | 1 |
| Xavier Gipson | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Jason Brownlee | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Nick Bawden | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 19/29 | 309 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Pierre Strong | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 6 | 8 | 134 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 5 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 3 | 57 | 2 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| David Bell | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
40.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.65