2023 · Week 17

Final

Jets

New York

QB Trevor Siemian

20·37

Browns

Cleveland

QB Joe Flacco

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CLE -6.5

Total

33.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.230EPA / play-0.127
  • 35.6%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.250EPA / dropback-0.131
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.121
  • 6.2%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -5.18CPOE-5.66
  • 25.5%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 39.2%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.01Points / drive1.56
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 10–6 since 1999

NYJ have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. CLE are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CLE @ NYJ12–17NYJ
2025 · W10CLE @ NYJ20–27NYJ
2022 · W2NYJ @ CLE31–30NYJ
2020 · W16CLE @ NYJ16–23NYJ
2019 · W2CLE @ NYJ23–3CLE
2018 · W3NYJ @ CLE17–21CLE
2017 · W5NYJ @ CLE17–14NYJ
2016 · W8NYJ @ CLE31–28NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00885Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 11:10675Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 8:06775Touchdown7–13
NYJQ1 4:4300Turnover on downs7–13
CLEQ1 4:3746Turnover on downs7–13
NYJQ1 3:23313Opp touchdown7–20
NYJQ1 2:01410Punt7–20
CLEQ2 15:00330Turnover7–20
NYJQ2 13:1835Punt7–20
CLEQ2 11:471079Touchdown7–27
NYJQ2 6:1538Punt7–27
CLEQ2 4:39517Opp touchdown14–27
CLEQ2 2:02375Touchdown14–34
NYJQ2 1:25652Field goal17–34
NYJQ3 15:001063Missed field goal17–34
CLEQ3 9:2737Punt17–34
NYJQ3 7:54928Punt17–34
CLEQ3 2:0765Punt17–34
NYJQ3 0:04519Punt17–34
CLEQ4 13:29325Turnover17–34
NYJQ4 11:5578Field goal20–34
CLEQ4 8:5036Punt20–34
NYJQ4 7:1349Turnover on downs20–34
CLEQ4 5:21518Field goal20–37
NYJQ4 2:541170End of half20–37

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian32/4526111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall13846.50
Trevor Siemian4133.30
Xavier Gipson188.00
Israel Abanikanda231.50
Garrett Wilson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson510500
Tyler Conklin55450
Breece Hall99421
Xavier Gipson47330
Kenny Yeboah23280
Jason Brownlee22280
Israel Abanikanda47270
Nick Bawden1180

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco19/2930931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford12645.30
Kareem Hunt10313.11
Pierre Strong4297.30
Joe Flacco231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Njoku681340
Elijah Moore56611
Jerome Ford23572
Jordan Akins11280
Harrison Bryant23140
Cedric Tillman1480
David Bell2370
Kareem Hunt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

40.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.78
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.65