Closing spread
PIT -9
Total
39
Model margin
+1.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. OAK are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:52 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 11:08 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:09 | 5 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 7:43 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 6:12 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 2:09 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 1:32 | 11 | 42 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 10:18 | 4 | -3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 8:30 | 5 | 22 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| LV | Q2 5:17 | 10 | 50 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| PIT | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 11 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| PIT | Q3 12:23 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 6–13 |
| LV | Q3 10:46 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–13 |
| PIT | Q3 8:43 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–13 |
| LV | Q3 6:23 | 7 | 14 | Punt | 6–13 |
| PIT | Q3 2:48 | 7 | 52 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| LV | Q4 14:54 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 6–13 |
| PIT | Q4 13:19 | 7 | 70 | Opp touchdown | 6–20 |
| PIT | Q4 9:32 | 6 | 54 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| LV | Q4 7:19 | 4 | -2 | Turnover | 13–20 |
| PIT | Q4 5:29 | 8 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 13–20 |
| LV | Q4 1:38 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–20 |
| PIT | Q4 0:36 | 3 | 57 | End of half | 13–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 25/37 | 301 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.52
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.