Closing spread
ATL -5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.112
- 39.9%Success rate42.6%
- -0.078EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.242
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.80CPOE+0.25
- 36.3%Third-down rate33.0%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 1.44Points / drive1.48
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. DET are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 67 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q1 10:17 | 7 | 22 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| DET | Q1 7:15 | 3 | 44 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| ATL | Q1 6:26 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DET | Q1 2:37 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q2 14:46 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DET | Q2 12:48 | 7 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q2 9:32 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–16 |
| DET | Q2 8:44 | 1 | 2 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| ATL | Q2 8:40 | 9 | 41 | Punt | 7–17 |
| DET | Q2 4:11 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–17 |
| ATL | Q2 2:29 | 5 | 41 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| DET | Q2 1:02 | 2 | 4 | End of half | 14–17 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–17 |
| DET | Q3 13:32 | 11 | 60 | Field goal | 14–20 |
| ATL | Q3 8:26 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–20 |
| DET | Q3 7:23 | 12 | 63 | Turnover | 14–20 |
| ATL | Q3 1:15 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 14–20 |
| DET | Q4 13:48 | 2 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| ATL | Q4 13:09 | 9 | 40 | Punt | 14–27 |
| DET | Q4 9:28 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 14–30 |
| ATL | Q4 2:52 | 11 | 66 | Turnover | 14–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 17/32 | 163 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 10 | 80 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 20/32 | 321 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 26 | 110 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.47