Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.014
- 45.3%Success rate40.5%
- +0.138EPA / dropback+0.108
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.175
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- +5.38CPOE+3.00
- 36.8%Third-down rate42.7%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate50.8%
- 1.98Points / drive1.57
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 12/26 | 195 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 18 | 77 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 21/31 | 245 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 24 | 72 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Musa Smith | 3 | 46 | 15.3 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 7 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.76