2006 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

20·26

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Steve McNair

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 50°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • +0.044EPA / play-0.014
  • 45.3%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.138EPA / dropback+0.108
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.175
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +5.38CPOE+3.00
  • 36.8%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate50.8%
  • 1.98Points / drive1.57
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
CINQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–0
BALQ1 14:54634Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 12:013-2Opp touchdown0–14
CINQ1 10:28823Punt0–14
BALQ1 8:0212Punt0–14
BALQ1 7:15837Punt0–14
CINQ1 2:07728Punt0–14
BALQ2 13:591271Field goal0–17
CINQ2 5:39979Touchdown7–17
BALQ2 1:06655End of half7–17
BALQ3 15:00974Field goal7–20
CINQ3 8:553-7Punt7–20
BALQ3 6:38425Field goal7–23
CINQ3 4:27511Field goal10–23
BALQ3 2:19423Punt10–23
CINQ3 0:10591Touchdown17–23
BALQ4 13:31322Field goal17–23
BALQ4 11:28110Field goal17–23
BALQ4 10:43315Field goal17–23
BALQ4 8:5510Field goal17–26
CINQ4 8:2535Punt17–26
BALQ4 7:1337Punt17–26
CINQ4 5:54541Field goal20–26
BALQ4 4:0133Punt20–26
CINQ4 3:2146Turnover on downs20–26
BALQ4 1:5510Turnover on downs20–26
CINQ4 0:1810Turnover20–26
BALQ4 0:0300End of half20–26

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer12/2619512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rudi Johnson18774.31
Carson Palmer155.00
Chris Perry111.00

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair21/3124500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis24723.01
Musa Smith34615.30
Mike Anderson492.30
Steve McNair720.30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.3%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.76