Closing spread
SD -13
Total
41
Model margin
+5.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 11–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. SD are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 25/43 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 19 | 36 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.41
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.