2006 · Week 9

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Charlie Frye

25·32

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SD -13

Total

41

Model margin

+5.4est.

SD perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

SD lead 11–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. SD are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9LAC @ CLE27–10CHARGERS
2022 · W5LAC @ CLE30–28CHARGERS
2021 · W5CLE @ LAC42–47CHARGERS
2018 · W6LAC @ CLE38–14CHARGERS
2017 · W13CLE @ LAC10–19CHARGERS
2016 · W16SD @ CLE17–20CLE
2015 · W4CLE @ SD27–30CHARGERS
2012 · W8SD @ CLE6–7CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–SD
LACQ1 15:001274Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 7:47866Field goal3–3
LACQ1 1:35316Punt3–3
CLEQ1 0:2337Field goal6–3
LACQ2 13:4737Punt6–3
CLEQ2 11:4910Turnover6–3
LACQ2 11:4239Punt6–3
CLEQ2 10:1136Punt6–3
LACQ2 8:013-7Punt6–3
CLEQ2 6:392-15Opp touchdown6–10
CLEQ2 5:49812Field goal9–10
LACQ2 2:44347Turnover9–10
CLEQ2 1:52859Field goal12–10
LACQ2 0:0100End of half12–10
CLEQ3 15:00932Punt12–10
LACQ3 10:1130Punt12–10
CLEQ3 8:4742Punt12–10
LACQ3 7:05734Punt12–10
CLEQ3 3:3230Punt12–16
LACQ3 1:17141Touchdown12–17
CLEQ3 1:08612Field goal15–17
LACQ4 14:191077Touchdown15–24
CLEQ4 9:151443Field goal18–24
LACQ4 5:29586Touchdown18–32
CLEQ4 3:531169Touchdown25–32
LACQ4 1:112-3End of half25–32

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Frye25/4323611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reuben Droughns19361.90
Charlie Frye5275.40
Braylon Edwards2136.50
Jerome Harrison2136.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.4%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.41

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.