2006 · Week 9 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
41
Model margin
+1.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.006
- 45.5%Success rate40.9%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.034
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.052
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.8%
- +3.73CPOE-2.46
- 49.3%Third-down rate38.5%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 2.18Points / drive1.58
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 39–16 since 1999
DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 16 | 52 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 6:34 | 1 | -1 | Safety | 0–2 |
| WAS | Q1 6:29 | 4 | 35 | Field goal | 0–5 |
| DAL | Q1 4:23 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 0–5 |
| WAS | Q1 2:59 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–5 |
| DAL | Q1 2:18 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 6–5 |
| WAS | Q2 12:55 | 7 | 35 | Turnover | 6–5 |
| DAL | Q2 9:09 | 11 | 45 | Field goal | 9–5 |
| WAS | Q2 3:27 | 3 | 49 | Touchdown | 9–12 |
| DAL | Q2 2:23 | 9 | 70 | Field goal | 12–12 |
| WAS | Q2 0:03 | 1 | 27 | End of half | 12–12 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 19–12 |
| WAS | Q3 10:17 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 19–12 |
| DAL | Q3 7:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 19–12 |
| WAS | Q3 6:29 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 19–12 |
| DAL | Q3 5:32 | 10 | 36 | Punt | 19–12 |
| WAS | Q3 1:21 | 5 | 32 | Touchdown | 19–19 |
| DAL | Q4 14:05 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 19–19 |
| WAS | Q4 8:54 | 8 | 41 | Punt | 19–19 |
| DAL | Q4 5:15 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 19–19 |
| WAS | Q4 3:41 | 6 | 24 | Missed field goal | 19–19 |
| DAL | Q4 0:31 | 4 | 44 | Missed field goal | 19–22 |
| WAS | Q4 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 19–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 24/36 | 284 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 14/23 | 192 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 23 | 84 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Mike Sellers | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
47.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.58