Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play+0.004
- 40.7%Success rate43.1%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.37CPOE+1.04
- 37.1%Third-down rate43.2%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 1.52Points / drive1.68
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–6 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PIT are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 16/27 | 227 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Walker | 1 | 72 | 72.0 | 1 |
| Mike Bell | 17 | 28 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Cedric Cobbs | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 38/54 | 433 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.37