2018 · Week 12

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

17·24

Broncos

Denver

QB Case Keenum

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.102EPA / play-0.020
  • 47.5%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.194EPA / dropback-0.009
  • -0.112EPA / rush-0.040
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +1.39CPOE-0.98
  • 43.9%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 73.7%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 2.23Points / drive1.60
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–6 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2PIT @ DEN13–6PIT
2021 · W5DEN @ PIT19–27PIT
2020 · W2DEN @ PIT21–26PIT
2015 · playoffsPIT @ DEN16–23DEN
2015 · W15DEN @ PIT27–34PIT
2012 · W1PIT @ DEN19–31DEN
2011 · playoffsPIT @ DEN23–29DEN
2009 · W9PIT @ DEN28–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–DEN
DENQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:311052Missed field goal0–0
DENQ1 9:36849Field goal0–3
PITQ1 6:261274Turnover0–3
DENQ2 14:49832Punt0–3
PITQ2 11:49950Field goal3–3
DENQ2 6:29670Touchdown3–10
PITQ2 3:271275Touchdown10–10
PITQ3 15:00412Punt10–10
DENQ3 12:57520Punt16–10
PITQ3 10:47197Touchdown17–10
DENQ3 10:3232Punt17–10
PITQ3 9:34630Turnover17–10
DENQ3 6:07243Touchdown17–17
PITQ3 5:30416Punt17–17
DENQ3 4:2032Punt17–17
PITQ3 3:16640Turnover17–17
DENQ4 15:001284Touchdown17–24
PITQ4 9:17527Punt17–24
DENQ4 7:1044Punt17–24
PITQ4 4:261054Turnover17–24
DENQ4 1:0300End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger41/5646212
Chris Boswell1/1210
Antonio Brown0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner13534.10
Ben Roethlisberger2189.00
Ryan Switzer144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster13171891
Antonio Brown913670
Ryan Switzer68670
James Conner44420
Jesse James44350
Vance McDonald35270
Xavier Grimble11230
Jaylen Samuels12120
James Washington0300

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum15/2819720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay141107.91
Royce Freeman6172.80
Case Keenum3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders712861
Jeff Heuerman23440
Matt LaCosse34341
Courtland Sutton14140
DaeSean Hamilton12130
Devontae Booker1260
Brian Parker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.50