Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.020
- 47.5%Success rate43.4%
- +0.194EPA / dropback-0.009
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.040
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.9%
- +1.39CPOE-0.98
- 43.9%Third-down rate33.1%
- 73.7%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 2.23Points / drive1.60
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–6 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 41/56 | 462 | 1 | 2 |
| Chris Boswell | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 13 | 17 | 189 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 13 | 67 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 6 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| James Conner | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 15/28 | 197 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 14 | 110 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 7 | 12 | 86 | 1 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Brian Parker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.50