Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play+0.113
- 42.0%Success rate48.0%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.271
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.9%
- +0.59CPOE+7.00
- 41.9%Third-down rate46.0%
- 61.7%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.66Points / drive2.26
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–6 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/40 | 245 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Dwyer | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Baron Batch | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 4 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 19/26 | 253 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 7 | 110 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 5 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.06