2012 · Week 1

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

19·31

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBroncos
  • -0.007EPA / play+0.113
  • 42.0%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback+0.271
  • -0.168EPA / rush-0.106
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +0.59CPOE+7.00
  • 41.9%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 61.7%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 1.66Points / drive2.26
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–6 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2PIT @ DEN13–6PIT
2021 · W5DEN @ PIT19–27PIT
2020 · W2DEN @ PIT21–26PIT
2018 · W12PIT @ DEN17–24DEN
2015 · playoffsPIT @ DEN16–23DEN
2015 · W15DEN @ PIT27–34PIT
2011 · playoffsPIT @ DEN23–29DEN
2009 · W9PIT @ DEN28–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–DEN
DENQ1 15:00825Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:49417Punt0–0
DENQ1 8:1638Turnover0–0
PITQ1 7:1662Punt0–0
DENQ1 2:58614Punt0–0
PITQ2 15:001135Field goal3–0
DENQ2 10:101280Touchdown3–7
PITQ2 5:161489Touchdown10–7
DENQ2 0:2800End of half10–7
PITQ3 15:001674Field goal13–7
DENQ3 6:05280Touchdown13–14
PITQ3 5:291451Touchdown19–14
DENQ4 14:111080Touchdown19–22
PITQ4 9:2337Punt19–22
DENQ4 8:181251Field goal19–25
PITQ4 3:00319Opp touchdown19–31
PITQ4 1:584-10Turnover on downs19–31
DENQ4 0:4200End of half19–31

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/4024521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Dwyer9434.80
Isaac Redman11201.80
Chris Rainey252.50
Ben Roethlisberger242.00
Antonio Brown144.00
Baron Batch1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown48740
Emmanuel Sanders48550
Heath Miller47501
Mike Wallace46371
Will Johnson11120
Jonathan Dwyer24110
Isaac Redman2270
Jerricho Cotchery0100
Chris Rainey11-10

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning19/2625320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee16644.00
Lance Ball2147.00
Knowshon Moreno5132.61
Peyton Manning430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas571101
Eric Decker57540
Jacob Tamme55431
Brandon Stokley23260
Matt Willis11140
Joel Dreessen1260
Willis McGahee0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.06