Closing spread
PIT -7.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play+0.077
- 40.5%Success rate45.8%
- -0.041EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.034
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.9%
- -1.92CPOE+4.85
- 35.2%Third-down rate39.0%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 1.47Points / drive2.08
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–6 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PIT are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 21/44 | 296 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 1 |
| C.J. Anderson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 10 | 16 | 181 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 12 | 61 | 2 |
| Jordan Norwood | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 40/55 | 380 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 14 | 26 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 16 | 18 | 189 | 2 |
| Martavis Bryant | 10 | 14 | 87 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 6 | 11 | 62 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.94