2015 · Week 15

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Brock Osweiler

27·34

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PIT -7.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapSteelers
  • -0.070EPA / play+0.077
  • 40.5%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback+0.136
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.034
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -1.92CPOE+4.85
  • 35.2%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 1.47Points / drive2.08
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–6 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PIT are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2PIT @ DEN13–6PIT
2021 · W5DEN @ PIT19–27PIT
2020 · W2DEN @ PIT21–26PIT
2018 · W12PIT @ DEN17–24DEN
2015 · playoffsPIT @ DEN16–23DEN
2012 · W1PIT @ DEN19–31DEN
2011 · playoffsPIT @ DEN23–29DEN
2009 · W9PIT @ DEN28–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–PIT
PITQ1 15:00625Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:40210Turnover0–0
PITQ1 11:09221Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 10:161285Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 4:4132Punt13–7
DENQ1 3:16161Touchdown14–7
PITQ1 3:08527Turnover14–7
DENQ1 1:221155Touchdown20–7
PITQ2 11:301359Field goal20–10
DENQ2 7:331285Touchdown27–10
PITQ2 1:56851Field goal27–13
DENQ2 0:0400End of half27–13
DENQ3 15:00616Punt27–13
PITQ3 12:4235Punt27–13
DENQ3 11:2633Punt27–13
PITQ3 10:33832Touchdown27–20
DENQ3 7:16429Punt27–20
PITQ3 5:32837Punt27–20
DENQ3 1:043-10Punt27–20
PITQ4 14:51551Touchdown27–27
DENQ4 12:3445Punt27–27
PITQ4 11:11417Punt27–27
DENQ4 9:1047Punt27–27
PITQ4 7:3033Punt27–27
DENQ4 5:35316Turnover27–27
PITQ4 4:20337Touchdown27–34
DENQ4 3:24724Turnover on downs27–34
PITQ4 2:1420Turnover27–34
DENQ4 2:0140Turnover on downs27–34
PITQ4 1:40313End of half27–34

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler21/4429631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Hillman14483.40
Emmanuel Sanders12424.00
Brock Osweiler5193.81
C.J. Anderson4143.50
Trevor Siemian1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders10161811
Demaryius Thomas512612
Jordan Norwood22290
Owen Daniels25140
C.J. Anderson1360
Vernon Davis1350
Andre Caldwell0200
Bennie Fowler0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger40/5538032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams14261.91
Ben Roethlisberger3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown16181892
Martavis Bryant1014870
Markus Wheaton611621
DeAngelo Williams56300
Heath Miller35120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.40
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.94