Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
41
Model margin
+3.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.035
- 40.3%Success rate44.0%
- -0.051EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -5.11CPOE-0.90
- 39.5%Third-down rate42.1%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
- 1.59Points / drive2.12
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–6 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PIT are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 18/34 | 256 | 2 | 1 |
| Drew Lock | 1/5 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 19 | 70 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| KJ Hamler | 3 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 29/41 | 311 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 16 | 106 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Benny Snell | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 8 | 13 | 92 | 1 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 3 | 88 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 7 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| James Washington | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| James Conner | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.73