2020 · Week 2

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

21·26

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -6

Total

41

Model margin

+3.7est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapSteelers
  • -0.071EPA / play+0.035
  • 40.3%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.134
  • 9.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -5.11CPOE-0.90
  • 39.5%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.12
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–6 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PIT are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2PIT @ DEN13–6PIT
2021 · W5DEN @ PIT19–27PIT
2018 · W12PIT @ DEN17–24DEN
2015 · playoffsPIT @ DEN16–23DEN
2015 · W15DEN @ PIT27–34PIT
2012 · W1PIT @ DEN19–31DEN
2011 · playoffsPIT @ DEN23–29DEN
2009 · W9PIT @ DEN28–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–PIT
DENQ1 15:00725Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:38316Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:30634Turnover0–0
PITQ1 7:42959Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 4:23528Punt0–7
PITQ1 1:223-8Punt0–7
DENQ2 15:00410Field goal3–7
PITQ2 12:07842Punt3–7
DENQ2 9:19615Punt3–13
PITQ2 6:34184Touchdown3–14
DENQ2 6:23435Missed field goal3–14
PITQ2 4:41413Punt3–14
DENQ2 2:0910Turnover3–14
PITQ2 1:5838Field goal3–17
DENQ2 0:3947Punt3–17
PITQ2 0:0700End of half3–17
PITQ3 15:0055Turnover3–17
DENQ3 11:50927Field goal6–17
PITQ3 8:00935Turnover on downs6–17
DENQ3 3:54845Touchdown14–17
PITQ3 1:07975Touchdown14–24
DENQ4 11:264-1Safety14–26
PITQ4 10:0110Turnover14–26
DENQ4 9:41755Touchdown21–26
PITQ4 7:43415Punt21–26
DENQ4 6:081239Turnover on downs21–26
PITQ4 1:51468End of half21–26

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Driskel18/3425621
Drew Lock1/52000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon19703.70
Royce Freeman3206.70
KJ Hamler199.00
Jeff Driskel252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton36660
Jerry Jeudy47620
Noah Fant45571
KJ Hamler37480
Tim Patrick25240
Melvin Gordon23141
DaeSean Hamilton1350
Nick Vannett0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger29/4131121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner161066.61
Benny Snell351.70
Ben Roethlisberger3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson813921
Chase Claypool33881
JuJu Smith-Schuster78480
Eric Ebron35430
James Washington35220
James Conner22150
Jaylen Samuels1240
Vance McDonald1230
Benny Snell11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.73