2024 · Week 2

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Justin Fields

13·6

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

36.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

6.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBroncos
  • -0.027EPA / play+0.011
  • 40.7%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.062
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.075
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +3.65CPOE+0.58
  • 39.7%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.16
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–6 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W5DEN @ PIT19–27PIT
2020 · W2DEN @ PIT21–26PIT
2018 · W12PIT @ DEN17–24DEN
2015 · playoffsPIT @ DEN16–23DEN
2015 · W15DEN @ PIT27–34PIT
2012 · W1PIT @ DEN19–31DEN
2011 · playoffsPIT @ DEN23–29DEN
2009 · W9PIT @ DEN28–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–DEN
DENQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:5938Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:3131Punt0–0
PITQ1 9:301273Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 1:56618Punt7–0
PITQ2 13:581373Punt7–0
DENQ2 7:04836Turnover on downs7–0
PITQ2 2:28935Field goal10–0
PITQ3 15:00512Punt10–0
DENQ3 12:44410Punt10–0
PITQ3 10:0832Punt10–0
DENQ3 8:54679Turnover10–0
PITQ3 6:1048Field goal13–0
DENQ3 4:1634Punt13–0
PITQ3 2:5948Punt13–0
DENQ3 1:151359Field goal13–3
PITQ4 10:42414Punt13–3
DENQ4 8:435-3Punt13–3
PITQ4 7:48612Punt13–3
DENQ4 4:45869Field goal13–6
PITQ4 1:5436Punt13–6
DENQ4 0:09215Turnover13–6

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields13/2011710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris17694.10
Jaylen Warren9424.70
Justin Fields8273.40
Cordarrelle Patterson231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Freiermuth44390
George Pickens24290
Jaylen Warren22190
Van Jefferson23140
Calvin Austin III1260
Najee Harris1250
Darnell Washington1151

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix20/3524602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bo Nix4256.30
Javonte Williams11171.50
Tyler Badie11616.00
Jaleel McLaughlin362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Reynolds45930
Lil'Jordan Humphrey45500
Javonte Williams55480
Courtland Sutton14260
Greg Dulcich38160
Marvin Mims Jr.12100
Tyler Badie1120
Nate Adkins0100
Troy Franklin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

6.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.14
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.84