Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
6.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.011
- 40.7%Success rate42.8%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.062
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.075
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- +3.65CPOE+0.58
- 39.7%Third-down rate40.4%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.86Points / drive2.16
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–6 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 13/20 | 117 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 20/35 | 246 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 11 | 17 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 5 | 93 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 3 | 8 | 16 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
6.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.14
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.84