Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play-0.070
- 45.8%Success rate40.5%
- +0.136EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.118
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.85CPOE-1.92
- 39.0%Third-down rate35.2%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 2.08Points / drive1.47
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–6 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/37 | 339 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martavis Bryant | 2 | 40 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Jordan Todman | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martavis Bryant | 9 | 15 | 154 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 2 | 2 | 64 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 2 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 5 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/37 | 222 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 15 | 72 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 16 | 38 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+1.12