2015 · DIV

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

16·23

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -7

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.077EPA / play-0.070
  • 45.8%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.136EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.118
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +4.85CPOE-1.92
  • 39.0%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 2.08Points / drive1.47
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–6 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2PIT @ DEN13–6PIT
2021 · W5DEN @ PIT19–27PIT
2020 · W2DEN @ PIT21–26PIT
2018 · W12PIT @ DEN17–24DEN
2015 · W15DEN @ PIT27–34PIT
2012 · W1PIT @ DEN19–31DEN
2011 · playoffsPIT @ DEN23–29DEN
2009 · W9PIT @ DEN28–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–DEN
PITQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:18420Field goal0–3
PITQ1 11:21748Turnover on downs0–3
DENQ1 7:5638Punt0–3
PITQ1 6:0435Punt0–3
DENQ1 5:0638Field goal0–6
PITQ1 3:40580Touchdown7–6
DENQ1 1:22737Punt7–6
PITQ2 14:12660Field goal10–6
DENQ2 10:1936Punt10–6
PITQ2 8:443-6Punt10–6
DENQ2 6:48522Turnover on downs10–6
PITQ2 5:1238Punt10–6
DENQ2 3:141063Field goal10–9
DENQ3 15:0066Punt10–9
PITQ3 11:51769Field goal13–9
DENQ3 9:32418Punt13–9
PITQ3 7:5534Punt13–9
DENQ3 5:53630Field goal13–12
PITQ3 2:45949Punt13–12
DENQ4 13:15434Punt13–12
PITQ4 11:33440Turnover13–12
DENQ4 9:521370Touchdown13–20
PITQ4 3:00510Turnover on downs13–20
DENQ4 1:4933Field goal13–23
PITQ4 0:53329Field goal16–23
DENQ4 0:1900End of half16–23

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/3733900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Martavis Bryant24020.00
Fitzgerald Toussaint12393.31
Jordan Todman561.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martavis Bryant9151540
Darrius Heyward-Bey22640
Sammie Coates23610
Markus Wheaton58300
Jesse James11220
Heath Miller1350
Fitzgerald Toussaint3320
Matt Spaeth1110

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning21/3722200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson15724.81
Ronnie Hillman16382.40
Peyton Manning2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders58850
Demaryius Thomas48400
Bennie Fowler24350
Cody Latimer22180
Virgil Green22140
C.J. Anderson23110
Owen Daniels23100
Jordan Norwood14100
Ronnie Hillman0100
Andre Caldwell12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

4.57%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+1.12