2021 · Week 5

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Teddy Bridgewater

19·27

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -2

Total

40

Model margin

+2.0est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapSteelers
  • +0.021EPA / play-0.051
  • 44.7%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.100EPA / dropback-0.037
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.1%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +2.34CPOE-2.66
  • 38.3%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.65
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–6 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PIT are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2PIT @ DEN13–6PIT
2020 · W2DEN @ PIT21–26PIT
2018 · W12PIT @ DEN17–24DEN
2015 · playoffsPIT @ DEN16–23DEN
2015 · W15DEN @ PIT27–34PIT
2012 · W1PIT @ DEN19–31DEN
2011 · playoffsPIT @ DEN23–29DEN
2009 · W9PIT @ DEN28–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–PIT
PITQ1 15:00685Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 12:02311Punt0–7
PITQ1 9:551028Turnover0–7
DENQ1 3:5738Field goal3–7
PITQ1 1:43845Field goal3–10
DENQ2 12:4238Punt3–10
PITQ2 11:4438Punt3–10
DENQ2 10:04654Field goal6–10
PITQ2 5:47763Touchdown6–17
DENQ2 2:12526Punt6–17
PITQ2 1:31519End of half6–17
DENQ3 15:00838Punt6–17
PITQ3 9:571581Touchdown6–24
DENQ3 2:411585Touchdown13–24
PITQ4 10:15414Punt13–24
DENQ4 7:40572Touchdown19–24
PITQ4 5:46649Field goal19–27
DENQ4 2:291172Turnover19–27
PITQ4 0:1100End of half19–27

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater24/3828821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams8617.60
Melvin Gordon9343.80
Teddy Bridgewater11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton7111201
Tim Patrick79890
Kendall Hinton23251
Javonte Williams33250
Noah Fant34200
Melvin Gordon2290
Diontae Spencer0100
David Moore0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger15/2525320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris231225.31
Benny Snell5204.00
JuJu Smith-Schuster263.00
Kalen Ballage400.00
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chase Claypool561301
Diontae Johnson22721
Najee Harris25200
Zach Gentry12130
Eric Ebron22100
Pat Freiermuth2270
Ray-Ray McCloud1210
JuJu Smith-Schuster0100
Kalen Ballage0100
Benny Snell0100
Cody White0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -24.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.03