Closing spread
DEN -2
Total
40
Model margin
+2.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play-0.051
- 44.7%Success rate40.2%
- +0.100EPA / dropback-0.037
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.1%
- +2.34CPOE-2.66
- 38.3%Third-down rate39.0%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.89Points / drive1.65
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–6 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PIT are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 24/38 | 288 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 8 | 61 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 11 | 120 | 1 |
| Tim Patrick | 7 | 9 | 89 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 15/25 | 253 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 23 | 122 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Benny Snell | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Claypool | 5 | 6 | 130 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 2 | 72 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.03