2011 · WC

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

23·29

Broncos

Denver

QB Tim Tebow

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -7.5

Total

34

Model margin

-1.0est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.089
  • 44.9%Success rate39.5%
  • +0.134EPA / dropback-0.100
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.078
  • 10.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +3.03CPOE-6.16
  • 45.1%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.16
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–6 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2PIT @ DEN13–6PIT
2021 · W5DEN @ PIT19–27PIT
2020 · W2DEN @ PIT21–26PIT
2018 · W12PIT @ DEN17–24DEN
2015 · playoffsPIT @ DEN16–23DEN
2015 · W15DEN @ PIT27–34PIT
2012 · W1PIT @ DEN19–31DEN
2009 · W9PIT @ DEN28–10PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–DEN
PITQ1 15:00748Field goal3–0
DENQ1 11:1433Punt3–0
PITQ1 9:41424Punt3–0
DENQ1 7:3737Punt3–0
PITQ1 6:131147Field goal6–0
DENQ1 0:23580Touchdown6–7
PITQ2 13:2430Punt6–7
DENQ2 12:54473Touchdown6–14
PITQ2 10:363-6Turnover6–14
DENQ2 9:1447Field goal6–17
PITQ2 7:3059Punt6–17
DENQ2 5:09764Field goal6–20
PITQ2 1:05548Punt6–20
DENQ2 0:2300End of half6–20
DENQ3 15:00837Punt6–20
PITQ3 10:251192Touchdown13–20
DENQ3 4:291341Field goal13–23
PITQ4 13:10666Field goal16–23
DENQ4 9:59536Turnover16–23
PITQ4 7:35755Touchdown23–23
DENQ4 3:48520Punt23–23
PITQ4 1:37717Turnover on downs23–23
DENOT180Touchdown23–29

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/4028911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaac Redman171217.10
Antonio Brown11818.00
Ben Roethlisberger3155.00
Mike Wallace111.01
John Clay111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders68810
Antonio Brown57700
Heath Miller57600
Jerricho Cotchery12311
Mike Wallace310260
Isaac Redman22210
Hines Ward0200
David Johnson0200

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Tebow10/2131620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee19613.20
Tim Tebow10505.01
Lance Ball4112.80
Eric Decker199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas472041
Daniel Fells22570
Eddie Royal37491
Lance Ball1260
Matt Willis0100
Dante Rosario0100
Eric Decker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

4.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.4%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.97