Closing spread
PIT -7.5
Total
34
Model margin
-1.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.089
- 44.9%Success rate39.5%
- +0.134EPA / dropback-0.100
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.078
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- +3.03CPOE-6.16
- 45.1%Third-down rate30.8%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.78Points / drive1.16
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–6 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/40 | 289 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Redman | 17 | 121 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| John Clay | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 10 | 26 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 10/21 | 316 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 19 | 61 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Lance Ball | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 7 | 204 | 1 |
| Daniel Fells | 2 | 2 | 57 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 3 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.97