Closing spread
MIN -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.151EPA / play-0.091
- 39.3%Success rate39.6%
- -0.174EPA / dropback-0.094
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.088
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.13CPOE-0.50
- 33.2%Third-down rate33.3%
- 45.1%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
- 0.99Points / drive1.43
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SF are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 12:51 | 15 | 69 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 3:51 | 12 | 59 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| MIN | Q2 13:22 | 5 | -1 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| SF | Q2 10:47 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| MIN | Q2 8:18 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 3–6 |
| SF | Q2 8:18 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–6 |
| MIN | Q2 6:42 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 3–6 |
| SF | Q2 1:52 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–6 |
| MIN | Q2 1:26 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–6 |
| SF | Q2 0:44 | 2 | 10 | End of half | 3–6 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 3–6 |
| SF | Q3 12:52 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–6 |
| MIN | Q3 11:35 | 8 | 32 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| SF | Q3 7:20 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| MIN | Q3 5:49 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 3–6 |
| SF | Q3 4:02 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–6 |
| MIN | Q3 2:02 | 10 | 57 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| SF | Q4 12:09 | 8 | 21 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| MIN | Q4 7:15 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–9 |
| SF | Q4 5:45 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–9 |
| MIN | Q4 4:09 | 8 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 3–9 |
| SF | Q4 1:04 | 2 | 11 | End of half | 3–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 21/31 | 136 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 26 | 96 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Bethel Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 13/21 | 105 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 41 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.58