Closing spread
JAX -9.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play+0.011
- 37.6%Success rate42.5%
- -0.059EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.118EPA / rush+0.053
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.6%
- -5.37CPOE+0.26
- 32.7%Third-down rate39.0%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.35Points / drive1.59
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 15/36 | 163 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 12/22 | 177 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 13 | 79 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 8 | 56 | 7.0 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Williams | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Alvin Pearman | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rich Alexis | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.56