2006 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

7·37

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

JAX -9.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.086EPA / play+0.011
  • 37.6%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.118EPA / rush+0.053
  • 9.1%Explosive rate10.6%
  • -5.37CPOE+0.26
  • 32.7%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.59
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
TENQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
JAXQ1 14:241066Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 10:5132Punt0–7
JAXQ1 9:3235Punt0–7
TENQ1 8:04515Turnover0–7
JAXQ1 6:06436Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 3:54612Punt0–14
JAXQ1 1:37631Field goal0–17
TENQ2 14:03737Turnover0–17
JAXQ2 10:363-2Field goal0–20
TENQ2 9:10414Punt0–20
JAXQ2 6:27724Punt0–20
TENQ2 1:46926Punt0–20
JAXQ3 15:00573Touchdown0–27
TENQ3 11:59418Opp touchdown0–34
TENQ3 9:3439Punt0–34
JAXQ3 7:46648Field goal0–37
TENQ3 2:3534Punt0–37
JAXQ3 1:02447Punt0–37
TENQ4 13:59936Turnover on downs0–37
JAXQ4 10:1139Punt0–37
TENQ4 7:511289Touchdown7–37
JAXQ4 2:4035Punt7–37
TENQ4 0:5820End of half7–37

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young15/3616313

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry19673.50
LenDale White7253.60
Vince Young4143.50

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard12/2217730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor13796.10
Maurice Jones-Drew8567.00
David Garrard2147.00
Reggie Williams11010.00
Alvin Pearman393.00
Rich Alexis351.70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.8%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.56