Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
38.5
Model margin
-2.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play-0.086
- 40.5%Success rate37.6%
- +0.108EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.118
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- +3.00CPOE-5.37
- 42.7%Third-down rate32.7%
- 50.8%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.57Points / drive1.35
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. TEN are 8-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 29/47 | 373 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 13/25 | 211 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 27 | 107 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Bo Scaife | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.9%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.30