2006 · Week 10

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Steve McNair

27·26

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

38.5

Model margin

-2.3est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTitans
  • -0.014EPA / play-0.086
  • 40.5%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.108EPA / dropback-0.059
  • -0.175EPA / rush-0.118
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +3.00CPOE-5.37
  • 42.7%Third-down rate32.7%
  • 50.8%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.35
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. TEN are 9-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–TEN
TENQ1 15:00866Field goal0–3
BALQ1 11:09374Touchdown7–3
TENQ1 9:30864Touchdown7–10
BALQ1 5:2239Punt7–10
TENQ1 3:1539Punt7–10
BALQ1 1:173-2Safety7–12
TENQ1 1:00453Touchdown7–19
BALQ2 14:5031Turnover7–19
TENQ2 13:41724Touchdown7–26
BALQ2 9:511080Touchdown14–26
TENQ2 4:51651Missed field goal14–26
BALQ2 1:451055Field goal17–26
BALQ3 15:00739Punt17–26
TENQ3 11:3836Punt17–26
BALQ3 10:23521Punt17–26
TENQ3 8:16514Turnover on downs17–26
BALQ3 5:52631Turnover17–26
TENQ3 3:00313Turnover17–26
BALQ3 1:13621Field goal20–26
TENQ4 14:06613Punt20–26
BALQ4 11:05732Punt20–26
TENQ4 6:5532Punt20–26
BALQ4 5:09450Touchdown27–26
TENQ4 3:35410Punt27–26
BALQ4 2:24311Punt27–26
TENQ4 1:50642Missed field goal27–26
BALQ4 0:3300End of half27–26

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair29/4737332

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis16452.80
Steve McNair294.50
Mike Anderson133.00
Mark Clayton2-7-3.50

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young13/2521101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry271074.01
Vince Young8394.91
Bo Scaife11313.01

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -73.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.9%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.30