Closing spread
DEN -9
Total
33.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:23 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 11:07 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:57 | 7 | 15 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 7:35 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 5:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 4:24 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:22 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 1:48 | 3 | 41 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 0:57 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q2 11:40 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 9:37 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q2 7:28 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 4:52 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q2 0:57 | 4 | 27 | End of half | 7–13 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q3 12:14 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LV | Q3 8:51 | 6 | 41 | Missed field goal | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q3 6:28 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| LV | Q3 6:18 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q3 4:22 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LV | Q3 2:15 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q3 0:49 | 9 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| LV | Q4 11:06 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 14–13 |
| DEN | Q4 9:02 | 9 | 53 | Punt | 14–13 |
| LV | Q4 4:03 | 1 | -5 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| DEN | Q4 3:57 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| LV | Q4 1:56 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| DEN | Q4 1:39 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 20/31 | 210 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Damien Nash | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
0.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.