Closing spread
DEN -9
Total
33.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 20/31 | 210 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Damien Nash | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
0.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.