Closing spread
MIN -5
Total
40
Model margin
+1.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play-0.151
- 40.0%Success rate39.3%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.174
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- -5.72CPOE+1.13
- 38.9%Third-down rate33.2%
- 36.6%Red-zone TD rate45.1%
- 1.28Points / drive0.99
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/42 | 347 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 22 | 55 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Noah Herron | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 18/30 | 257 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
40.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.17