Closing spread
MIN -5
Total
40
Model margin
+1.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play-0.151
- 40.0%Success rate39.3%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.174
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- -5.72CPOE+1.13
- 38.9%Third-down rate33.2%
- 36.6%Red-zone TD rate45.1%
- 1.28Points / drive0.99
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 14:31 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 13:34 | 12 | 88 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 6:40 | 1 | -6 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 6:29 | 7 | 22 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| MIN | Q1 3:34 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| GB | Q2 14:52 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–7 |
| MIN | Q2 13:12 | 9 | 81 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| GB | Q2 7:52 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 10–14 |
| MIN | Q2 5:20 | 7 | 46 | Punt | 10–14 |
| GB | Q2 1:50 | 3 | 97 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| MIN | Q2 0:48 | 4 | 6 | End of half | 17–14 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 17–14 |
| GB | Q3 12:19 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 17–14 |
| MIN | Q3 9:13 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–14 |
| GB | Q3 7:11 | 6 | 31 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| MIN | Q3 4:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–14 |
| GB | Q3 3:03 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 20–14 |
| MIN | Q4 14:49 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–14 |
| GB | Q4 13:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–14 |
| MIN | Q4 11:54 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 20–14 |
| GB | Q4 9:40 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–14 |
| MIN | Q4 8:28 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| GB | Q4 7:46 | 9 | 71 | Field goal | 23–14 |
| MIN | Q4 2:11 | 7 | 57 | Field goal | 23–17 |
| GB | Q4 0:58 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/42 | 347 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 22 | 55 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Noah Herron | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 18/30 | 257 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
40.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.17