Closing spread
JAX -10
Total
37
Model margin
+4.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play+0.011
- 43.2%Success rate42.5%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.052EPA / rush+0.053
- 6.8%Explosive rate10.6%
- +4.14CPOE+0.26
- 38.7%Third-down rate39.0%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.41Points / drive1.59
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 33–16 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:08 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 9:10 | 9 | 35 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q1 4:52 | 9 | 59 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| HOU | Q2 14:48 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q2 13:27 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–3 |
| HOU | Q2 12:01 | 16 | 62 | Missed field goal | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q2 4:37 | 5 | 29 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| HOU | Q2 2:22 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q2 1:06 | 8 | 43 | End of half | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–3 |
| HOU | Q3 13:20 | 11 | 32 | Missed field goal | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q3 8:49 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| HOU | Q3 7:56 | 6 | 21 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| JAX | Q3 4:55 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 13–3 |
| HOU | Q3 1:17 | 11 | 36 | Punt | 13–3 |
| JAX | Q4 10:00 | 6 | 69 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| HOU | Q4 7:17 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–3 |
| JAX | Q4 5:40 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| HOU | Q4 4:32 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 13–10 |
| JAX | Q4 2:34 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 13–10 |
| HOU | Q4 1:58 | 4 | 10 | End of half | 13–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 16/32 | 167 | 0 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 1/3 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samkon Gado | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 0 |
| David Carr | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Wali Lundy | 16 | 34 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Jameel Cook | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 15/34 | 214 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 44 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.40