Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
40
Model margin
+1.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play-0.103
- 41.1%Success rate41.6%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.139
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.2%
- +3.07CPOE-1.62
- 41.1%Third-down rate37.7%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.66Points / drive1.19
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 8–3 since 1999
KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.1 points. MIA are 4-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:02 | 12 | 58 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 7:04 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q1 4:49 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 2:54 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q1 1:53 | 11 | 44 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| KC | Q2 11:17 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q2 10:23 | 5 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| KC | Q2 8:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–13 |
| MIA | Q2 6:37 | 6 | 18 | Missed field goal | 0–13 |
| KC | Q2 3:58 | 7 | 30 | Missed field goal | 0–13 |
| MIA | Q2 1:09 | 6 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 0–13 |
| KC | Q2 0:03 | 1 | 17 | End of half | 0–13 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–13 |
| KC | Q3 12:53 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 0–13 |
| MIA | Q3 10:45 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–13 |
| KC | Q3 8:11 | 4 | 31 | Punt | 0–13 |
| MIA | Q3 6:42 | 7 | 43 | Punt | 0–13 |
| KC | Q3 2:06 | 14 | 85 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| MIA | Q4 11:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–13 |
| KC | Q4 9:55 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 3–13 |
| MIA | Q4 8:56 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| KC | Q4 8:11 | 4 | 17 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| MIA | Q4 7:14 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 10–13 |
| KC | Q4 3:10 | 7 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 10–13 |
| MIA | Q4 1:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 15/38 | 201 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Samie Parker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 19/35 | 201 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 25 | 89 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.92