Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
40
Model margin
+1.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play-0.103
- 41.1%Success rate41.6%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.139
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.2%
- +3.07CPOE-1.62
- 41.1%Third-down rate37.7%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.66Points / drive1.19
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. MIA are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 15/38 | 201 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Samie Parker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 19/35 | 201 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 25 | 89 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.92