Closing spread
SD -1
Total
48
Model margin
+2.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. CIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 31/42 | 440 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 18 | 85 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Chris Perry | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.