Closing spread
SD -1
Total
48
Model margin
+2.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. CIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 13:07 | 6 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 9:57 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 6:03 | 10 | 89 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q1 1:36 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–20 |
| CIN | Q1 0:17 | 1 | 51 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| LAC | Q1 0:09 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–21 |
| CIN | Q2 13:10 | 10 | 60 | Missed field goal | 0–21 |
| LAC | Q2 8:03 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| CIN | Q2 5:27 | 14 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q2 0:16 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 7–28 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q3 13:15 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| CIN | Q3 10:47 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–28 |
| LAC | Q3 9:15 | 1 | 46 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| CIN | Q3 9:08 | 5 | 54 | Field goal | 21–31 |
| LAC | Q3 6:27 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 28–31 |
| CIN | Q3 3:08 | 1 | 74 | Touchdown | 28–38 |
| LAC | Q3 2:50 | 7 | 40 | Touchdown | 35–38 |
| CIN | Q4 14:55 | 1 | -11 | Turnover | 41–38 |
| LAC | Q4 14:46 | 1 | 9 | Touchdown | 42–38 |
| CIN | Q4 14:40 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 42–38 |
| LAC | Q4 11:24 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 42–38 |
| CIN | Q4 9:37 | 4 | 1 | Field goal | 42–41 |
| LAC | Q4 7:48 | 12 | 77 | Touchdown | 49–41 |
| CIN | Q4 2:29 | 8 | 45 | Turnover on downs | 49–41 |
| LAC | Q4 0:44 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 49–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 31/42 | 440 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 18 | 85 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Chris Perry | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.