Closing spread
DET -6.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.112
- 39.6%Success rate42.6%
- -0.094EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.242
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.50CPOE+0.25
- 33.3%Third-down rate33.0%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 1.43Points / drive1.48
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 10–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. DET are 7-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 14/20 | 136 | 0 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 22 | 159 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Maurice Hicks | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 19/30 | 202 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.70