Closing spread
SF -6
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play-0.019
- 41.5%Success rate44.8%
- +0.027EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.135
- 7.7%Explosive rate11.4%
- -2.79CPOE-2.68
- 36.1%Third-down rate37.2%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.75Points / drive1.66
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 10–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. SF are 4-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 34/53 | 347 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerryon Johnson | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 7 | 13 | 109 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 6 | 9 | 89 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 9 | 54 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 9 | 12 | 47 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Michael Roberts | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 18/26 | 206 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 11 | 138 | 12.5 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Trent Taylor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.72
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.30