2018 · Week 2

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

27·30

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

SF -6

Total

48.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge map49ers
  • -0.022EPA / play-0.019
  • 41.5%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.027EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.135
  • 7.7%Explosive rate11.4%
  • -2.79CPOE-2.68
  • 36.1%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.66
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 10–2 since 1999

Meetings average 48.8 points. SF are 4-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17DET @ SF40–34DET
2023 · playoffsDET @ SF31–34SF
2021 · W1SF @ DET41–33SF
2015 · W16SF @ DET17–32DET
2012 · W2DET @ SF19–27SF
2011 · W6SF @ DET25–19SF
2009 · W16DET @ SF6–20SF
2008 · W3DET @ SF13–31SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–SF
DETQ1 15:00723Punt0–0
SFQ1 10:52853Field goal0–3
DETQ1 6:18769Touchdown7–3
SFQ1 2:451583Touchdown7–10
DETQ2 12:0737Punt7–10
SFQ2 10:28422Punt7–10
DETQ2 8:063-3Turnover7–10
SFQ2 6:303-8Field goal7–13
DETQ2 4:55520Punt7–13
SFQ2 1:533-9Punt7–13
DETQ2 0:49842Field goal10–13
SFQ2 0:0300End of half10–13
SFQ3 15:00426Touchdown10–20
DETQ3 13:17847Field goal13–20
SFQ3 8:46733Punt13–20
DETQ3 5:47739Punt13–20
SFQ3 2:05397Touchdown13–27
DETQ3 0:5232Punt13–27
SFQ4 14:43638Field goal13–30
DETQ4 11:21690Touchdown20–30
SFQ4 8:363-1Punt20–30
DETQ4 6:081368Touchdown27–30
SFQ4 3:27713Punt27–30
DETQ4 1:08723Turnover on downs27–30
SFQ4 0:1400End of half27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford34/5334730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerryon Johnson8435.40
LeGarrette Blount8384.80
Golden Tate199.00
Matthew Stafford188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate7131090
Kenny Golladay69891
Marvin Jones49541
Theo Riddick912470
Kerryon Johnson56230
Michael Roberts11151
Luke Willson11130
LeGarrette Blount11-30

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo18/2620620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Breida1113812.51
Alfred Morris14483.40
Jimmy Garoppolo341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon44570
Dante Pettis12350
Alfred Morris22320
Garrett Celek22221
George Kittle24220
Matt Breida34210
Kendrick Bourne1141
Trent Taylor0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.72
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-1.30