2012 · Week 2

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

19·27

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

SF -7

Total

46

Model margin

+4.2est.

SF perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge map49ers
  • -0.004EPA / play+0.105
  • 45.2%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.056EPA / dropback+0.170
  • -0.131EPA / rush+0.029
  • 8.6%Explosive rate12.9%
  • -2.29CPOE+5.02
  • 41.4%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.92
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 10–2 since 1999

Meetings average 48.8 points. SF are 4-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17DET @ SF40–34DET
2023 · playoffsDET @ SF31–34SF
2021 · W1SF @ DET41–33SF
2018 · W2DET @ SF27–30SF
2015 · W16SF @ DET17–32DET
2011 · W6SF @ DET25–19SF
2009 · W16DET @ SF6–20SF
2008 · W3DET @ SF13–31SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–SF
DETQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:37467Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 12:25925Field goal3–7
SFQ1 7:4700Field goal3–7
DETQ1 7:3712Field goal3–7
DETQ1 6:5620Field goal6–7
SFQ1 6:43423Punt6–7
DETQ1 3:2434Turnover6–7
SFQ1 2:21611Touchdown6–14
DETQ2 14:57517Punt6–14
SFQ2 12:14631Punt6–14
DETQ2 8:301160Missed field goal6–14
SFQ2 2:53829Punt6–14
DETQ2 1:0511End of half6–14
SFQ3 15:00947Field goal6–17
DETQ3 9:42939Field goal9–17
SFQ3 3:40955Field goal9–20
DETQ4 14:42855Field goal12–20
SFQ4 9:161389Touchdown12–27
DETQ4 3:041190Touchdown19–27
SFQ4 1:2900End of half19–27

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford19/3223011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith16533.30
Joique Bell6142.30
Matthew Stafford2105.00
Nate Burleson252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson812940
Joique Bell23590
Brandon Pettigrew34181
Kevin Smith23170
Tony Scheffler13130
Nate Burleson13110
Titus Young13110
Will Heller1170

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith20/3122620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore17895.21
Mario Manningham12929.00
Kendall Hunter5234.60
Alex Smith471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis57732
Michael Crabtree67670
Mario Manningham34280
Kendall Hunter23210
Frank Gore24160
Randy Moss11140
Delanie Walker1270
Kyle Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

4.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.4%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.24