Closing spread
SF -7
Total
46
Model margin
+4.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.105
- 45.2%Success rate47.9%
- +0.056EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.131EPA / rush+0.029
- 8.6%Explosive rate12.9%
- -2.29CPOE+5.02
- 41.4%Third-down rate35.1%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.65Points / drive1.92
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 10–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. SF are 4-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 19/32 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 8 | 12 | 94 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 3 | 59 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 3 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Kevin Smith | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/31 | 226 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 17 | 89 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 7 | 73 | 2 |
| Michael Crabtree | 6 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.24