2021 · Week 1

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

41·33

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

SF -9.5

Total

46

Model margin

-1.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Lions wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapLions
  • +0.085EPA / play-0.061
  • 45.5%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.123
  • 10.9%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +1.73CPOE-0.05
  • 40.6%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.73
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 10–2 since 1999

Meetings average 48.8 points. DET are 7-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17DET @ SF40–34DET
2023 · playoffsDET @ SF31–34SF
2018 · W2DET @ SF27–30SF
2015 · W16SF @ DET17–32DET
2012 · W2DET @ SF19–27SF
2011 · W6SF @ DET25–19SF
2009 · W16DET @ SF6–20SF
2008 · W3DET @ SF13–31SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–DET
DETQ1 15:00639Turnover on downs0–0
SFQ1 12:0110Turnover0–0
DETQ1 11:5655Missed field goal0–0
SFQ1 9:36759Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 5:411467Touchdown7–7
SFQ2 13:29478Touchdown14–7
DETQ2 11:12844Field goal14–10
SFQ2 6:13760Touchdown21–10
DETQ2 2:25412Opp touchdown28–10
DETQ2 1:103-3Punt28–10
SFQ2 0:45535Field goal31–10
DETQ2 0:0300End of half31–10
SFQ3 15:00757Missed field goal31–10
DETQ3 11:2051Punt31–10
SFQ3 10:16591Touchdown38–10
DETQ3 7:54775Touchdown38–17
SFQ3 4:23525Punt38–17
DETQ3 0:343-5Punt38–17
SFQ4 13:38619Field goal41–17
DETQ4 9:53733Turnover on downs41–17
SFQ4 7:2836Punt41–17
DETQ4 5:451457Touchdown41–25
SFQ4 1:5300Touchdown41–25
DETQ4 1:52659Touchdown41–33
SFQ4 1:07313Turnover41–33
DETQ4 0:52846Turnover on downs41–33
SFQ4 0:1200End of half41–33

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo17/2531410
Trey Lance1/1510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah Mitchell191045.51
Raheem Mostert22010.00
JaMycal Hasty133.01
Jimmy Garoppolo320.70
Trey Lance320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.9121891
George Kittle45780
Trent Sherfield23231
JaMycal Hasty11150
Mohamed Sanu1170

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff38/5733831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams9546.01
D'Andre Swift11393.50
Jared Goff3144.70
Kalif Raymond199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson811971
D'Andre Swift811651
Jamaal Williams89560
Kalif Raymond34500
Amon-Ra St. Brown24230
Trinity Benson36190
Tyrell Williams23140
Quintez Cephus36121
Darren Fells1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.2%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.44