Closing spread
SF -9.5
Total
46
Model margin
-1.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play-0.061
- 45.5%Success rate42.1%
- +0.174EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.123
- 10.9%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.73CPOE-0.05
- 40.6%Third-down rate34.7%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 2.30Points / drive1.73
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 10–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. DET are 7-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 17/25 | 314 | 1 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 1/1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 19 | 104 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 9 | 12 | 189 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 5 | 78 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 38/57 | 338 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 8 | 11 | 97 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 8 | 11 | 65 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 8 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Trinity Benson | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Quintez Cephus | 3 | 6 | 12 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.44