Closing spread
SF -7.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play+0.179
- 45.9%Success rate51.6%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.014EPA / rush+0.034
- 11.2%Explosive rate13.8%
- +1.34CPOE+4.51
- 42.4%Third-down rate48.1%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
- 2.29Points / drive2.69
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 10–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. SF are 4-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 25/41 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 15 | 93 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 42 | 42.0 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta | 9 | 13 | 97 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 11 | 87 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 20/31 | 267 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 20 | 90 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 8 | 9 | 89 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 8 | 68 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.07