Closing spread
DET -5.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play+0.036
- 40.8%Success rate44.2%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.101
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.45CPOE+1.23
- 29.6%Third-down rate35.2%
- 46.7%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.87Points / drive1.98
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 10–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. DET are 7-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/32 | 125 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 15 | 141 | 9.4 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 9 | 15 | 77 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/50 | 293 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 7 | 9 | 113 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 6 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 8 | 14 | 42 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 4 | 10 | 34 | 1 |
| Titus Young | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.28