2011 · Week 6

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

25·19

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -5.5

Total

45

Model margin

+1.3est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Lions wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapLions
  • -0.009EPA / play+0.036
  • 40.8%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.101
  • -0.091EPA / rush-0.104
  • 9.0%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -0.45CPOE+1.23
  • 29.6%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 46.7%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.98
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 10–2 since 1999

Meetings average 48.8 points. DET are 7-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17DET @ SF40–34DET
2023 · playoffsDET @ SF31–34SF
2021 · W1SF @ DET41–33SF
2018 · W2DET @ SF27–30SF
2015 · W16SF @ DET17–32DET
2012 · W2DET @ SF19–27SF
2009 · W16DET @ SF6–20SF
2008 · W3DET @ SF13–31SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–DET
DETQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:411-7Turnover0–0
DETQ1 13:36510Field goal0–3
SFQ1 11:3539Punt0–3
DETQ1 10:0436Punt0–3
SFQ1 8:5035Punt0–3
DETQ1 7:46855Touchdown0–10
SFQ1 4:44885Touchdown7–10
DETQ2 14:5735Punt7–10
SFQ2 13:5539Punt7–10
DETQ2 12:2031Punt7–10
SFQ2 10:27415Punt7–10
DETQ2 7:552-11Safety9–10
SFQ2 7:44413Punt9–10
DETQ2 5:001268Missed field goal9–10
SFQ2 0:55326Field goal12–10
SFQ3 15:0033Punt12–10
DETQ3 13:53654Field goal12–13
SFQ3 11:41553Field goal15–13
DETQ3 9:23631Punt15–13
SFQ3 6:18617Punt15–13
DETQ3 3:583-4Punt15–13
SFQ3 2:3224Turnover15–13
DETQ3 1:43844Touchdown15–19
SFQ4 13:48532Punt15–19
DETQ4 11:16440Punt15–19
SFQ4 9:1939Punt15–19
DETQ4 7:513-4Punt15–19
SFQ4 5:29835Touchdown22–19
DETQ4 1:5145Turnover on downs22–19
SFQ4 1:1636Field goal25–19
DETQ4 1:02411End of half25–19

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith17/3212511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore151419.41
Kendall Hunter8334.10
Ted Ginn22110.50
Alex Smith252.50
Anthony Dixon100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree915770
Ted Ginn25240
Delanie Walker23111
Vernon Davis2280
Frank Gore2550
Justin Peelle0100
Kyle Williams0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford28/5029320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahvid Best12373.10
Maurice Morris5204.00
Matthew Stafford199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson791130
Jahvid Best68730
Brandon Pettigrew814421
Nate Burleson410341
Titus Young15140
Will Heller1190
Maurice Morris1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.28