Closing spread
SF -14
Total
41
Model margin
+8.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.169EPA / play-0.067
- 39.2%Success rate37.0%
- -0.183EPA / dropback-0.055
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.087
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.1%
- -6.85CPOE-2.69
- 35.8%Third-down rate29.4%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.11Points / drive1.54
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 10–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. SF are 4-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 11/21 | 130 | 0 | 3 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7/12 | 51 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 18 | 37 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 7 | 12 | 96 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/31 | 230 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 28 | 71 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 4 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 4 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Jason Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.3%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.20