2009 · Week 16

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Drew Stanton

6·20

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -14

Total

41

Model margin

+8.2est.

SF perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge map49ers
  • -0.169EPA / play-0.067
  • 39.2%Success rate37.0%
  • -0.183EPA / dropback-0.055
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.087
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -6.85CPOE-2.69
  • 35.8%Third-down rate29.4%
  • 46.3%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.11Points / drive1.54
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 10–2 since 1999

Meetings average 48.8 points. SF are 4-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17DET @ SF40–34DET
2023 · playoffsDET @ SF31–34SF
2021 · W1SF @ DET41–33SF
2018 · W2DET @ SF27–30SF
2015 · W16SF @ DET17–32DET
2012 · W2DET @ SF19–27SF
2011 · W6SF @ DET25–19SF
2008 · W3DET @ SF13–31SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–SF
DETQ1 15:001476Field goal3–0
SFQ1 7:013-8Punt3–0
DETQ1 4:5037Punt3–0
SFQ1 3:19563Field goal3–3
DETQ1 0:54522Turnover3–3
SFQ2 13:29629Turnover on downs3–3
DETQ2 10:42324Turnover3–3
SFQ2 9:07621Punt3–3
DETQ2 6:4335Punt3–3
SFQ2 4:43633Field goal3–6
DETQ2 2:11414Turnover3–6
SFQ2 1:42930Missed field goal3–6
DETQ2 0:1000End of half3–6
SFQ3 15:0036Punt3–6
DETQ3 13:1148Punt3–6
SFQ3 10:39649Touchdown3–13
DETQ3 7:1735Punt3–13
SFQ3 5:13763Touchdown3–20
DETQ3 1:08735Turnover3–20
SFQ4 13:50416Punt3–20
DETQ4 11:08727Punt3–20
SFQ4 8:3410Turnover3–20
DETQ4 8:2210Turnover3–20
SFQ4 8:1232Punt3–20
DETQ4 6:321155Field goal6–20
SFQ4 3:5539Punt6–20
DETQ4 2:51412Turnover6–20
SFQ4 1:5300End of half6–20

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton11/2113003
Daunte Culpepper7/125100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris18372.10
Calvin Johnson23216.00
Drew Stanton6233.80
Daunte Culpepper2168.00
Derrick Williams144.00
Aaron Brown111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson712960
Maurice Morris47290
Will Heller35220
Bryant Johnson24180
Dennis Northcutt0200
Derrick Williams0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith20/3123010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore28712.51
Josh Morgan11616.00
Alex Smith3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Gore46810
Michael Crabtree45680
Delanie Walker34360
Josh Morgan47210
Vernon Davis33181
Jason Hill0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.3%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.25
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.20