2015 · Week 16

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Blaine Gabbert

17·32

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -8.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Lions wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapLions
  • -0.091EPA / play-0.019
  • 38.8%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.045
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.160
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -3.50CPOE-0.09
  • 30.2%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 1.32Points / drive1.90
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 10–2 since 1999

Meetings average 48.8 points. DET are 7-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17DET @ SF40–34DET
2023 · playoffsDET @ SF31–34SF
2021 · W1SF @ DET41–33SF
2018 · W2DET @ SF27–30SF
2012 · W2DET @ SF19–27SF
2011 · W6SF @ DET25–19SF
2009 · W16DET @ SF6–20SF
2008 · W3DET @ SF13–31SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–DET
SFQ1 15:001381Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 9:24834Field goal7–3
SFQ1 5:1937Punt7–3
DETQ1 3:54969Touchdown7–10
SFQ2 14:15782Touchdown14–10
SFQ2 11:2600Touchdown14–10
DETQ2 11:2638Punt14–10
SFQ2 9:473-9Turnover14–16
DETQ2 8:5711Touchdown14–17
SFQ2 8:54753Missed field goal14–17
DETQ2 5:37416Punt14–17
SFQ2 2:41951Field goal17–17
DETQ2 0:35345Field goal17–20
DETQ3 15:001074Field goal17–23
SFQ3 8:2540Punt17–23
DETQ3 6:49636Punt17–23
SFQ3 3:55417Punt17–23
DETQ3 1:311457Touchdown17–29
SFQ4 9:04620Turnover on downs17–29
DETQ4 6:50934Field goal17–32
SFQ4 3:07620Turnover on downs17–32
DETQ4 1:5400End of half17–32

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert22/3322520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DuJuan Harris11736.60
Jarryd Hayne9273.00
Kendall Gaskins2126.00
Blaine Gabbert199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vance McDonald57611
Bruce Ellington34550
Quinton Patton14280
Anquan Boldin55270
Torrey Smith23231
Jarryd Hayne56200
DuJuan Harris12110
Blake Bell0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford29/3730120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah8394.90
Theo Riddick7202.90
Joique Bell7131.91
Matthew Stafford5112.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson610771
Theo Riddick78630
Golden Tate45590
Eric Ebron45490
T.J. Jones11291
Joique Bell2390
Ameer Abdullah4490
Lance Moore1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.86