Closing spread
DET -8.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.019
- 38.8%Success rate44.9%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.045
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.160
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.6%
- -3.50CPOE-0.09
- 30.2%Third-down rate38.4%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.32Points / drive1.90
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 10–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. DET are 7-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 22/33 | 225 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DuJuan Harris | 11 | 73 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Jarryd Hayne | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Gaskins | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance McDonald | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Bruce Ellington | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Jarryd Hayne | 5 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 29/37 | 301 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 10 | 77 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 7 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | 1 | 29 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.86