Closing spread
DET -4
Total
50.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play+0.063
- 49.6%Success rate46.0%
- +0.267EPA / dropback+0.142
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.059
- 11.5%Explosive rate10.5%
- +5.81CPOE+1.77
- 48.1%Third-down rate43.1%
- 74.9%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 3.02Points / drive2.24
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 10–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. SF are 4-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 26/34 | 303 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 18 | 117 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Craig Reynolds | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jermar Jefferson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 5 | 8 | 77 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 6 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 10 | 60 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 27/35 | 377 | 3 | 2 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 3/4 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Guerendo | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Pearsall | 8 | 10 | 141 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 8 | 8 | 112 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 7 | 10 | 67 | 0 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 4 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.7%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.25