2024 · Week 17

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

40·34

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

DET -4

Total

50.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge map49ers
  • +0.156EPA / play+0.063
  • 49.6%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.267EPA / dropback+0.142
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.059
  • 11.5%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +5.81CPOE+1.77
  • 48.1%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 74.9%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 3.02Points / drive2.24
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 10–2 since 1999

Meetings average 48.8 points. SF are 4-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · playoffsDET @ SF31–34SF
2021 · W1SF @ DET41–33SF
2018 · W2DET @ SF27–30SF
2015 · W16SF @ DET17–32DET
2012 · W2DET @ SF19–27SF
2011 · W6SF @ DET25–19SF
2009 · W16DET @ SF6–20SF
2008 · W3DET @ SF13–31SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–SF
SFQ1 15:001161Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 8:37965Touchdown6–7
SFQ1 3:42760Touchdown6–14
DETQ2 14:53985Touchdown13–14
SFQ2 10:09770Touchdown13–21
DETQ2 6:131262Turnover on downs13–21
SFQ2 1:13769Missed field goal13–21
DETQ2 0:0200End of half13–21
DETQ3 15:001066Touchdown21–21
SFQ3 9:58684Touchdown21–28
DETQ3 7:40531Field goal24–28
SFQ3 4:2520Turnover24–28
DETQ3 3:58843Touchdown31–28
SFQ3 0:19630Missed field goal31–28
DETQ4 13:25728Field goal34–28
SFQ4 10:29629Turnover34–28
DETQ4 7:34762Touchdown40–28
SFQ4 2:581172Touchdown40–34
DETQ4 0:4300End of half40–34

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff26/3430330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs181176.51
Craig Reynolds7314.40
Jermar Jefferson393.00
Jameson Williams2-2-1.01
Jared Goff3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jameson Williams58771
Sam LaPorta68641
Amon-Ra St. Brown810601
Jahmyr Gibbs44460
Craig Reynolds22350
Allen Robinson11210

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy27/3537732
Joshua Dobbs3/43500
Ricky Pearsall0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaac Guerendo9343.80
Deebo Samuel Sr.3165.30
Brock Purdy3124.01
Joshua Dobbs177.01
Ricky Pearsall263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricky Pearsall8101411
George Kittle881120
Jauan Jennings710670
Isaac Guerendo44650
Chris Conley11130
Deebo Samuel Sr.1151

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.7%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.25