Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
43
Model margin
+1.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 15/23 | 161 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 21 | 124 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.75
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.06
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.