Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
43
Model margin
+1.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 58 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 9:11 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 5:45 | 9 | 48 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| SEA | Q1 0:07 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LA | Q2 12:21 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–7 |
| SEA | Q2 10:59 | 8 | 94 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LA | Q2 7:39 | 12 | 62 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| SEA | Q2 0:27 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–14 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 53 | Turnover | 13–14 |
| SEA | Q3 10:27 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–14 |
| LA | Q3 8:23 | 6 | 33 | Field goal | 16–14 |
| SEA | Q3 5:41 | 7 | 12 | Turnover | 16–14 |
| LA | Q3 2:10 | 7 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 16–14 |
| SEA | Q4 14:22 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 16–14 |
| LA | Q4 13:28 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 16–14 |
| SEA | Q4 11:57 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 16–14 |
| LA | Q4 10:27 | 3 | 8 | Opp touchdown | 16–21 |
| LA | Q4 8:19 | 12 | 69 | Touchdown | 22–21 |
| SEA | Q4 2:30 | 7 | 29 | Field goal | 22–24 |
| LA | Q4 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 22–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 15/23 | 161 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 21 | 124 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.75
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.06
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.