Closing spread
ARI -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.045
- 42.6%Success rate42.0%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.164
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.2%
- +0.25CPOE-3.07
- 33.0%Third-down rate39.4%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 1.48Points / drive1.52
- 3.9%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 23/38 | 248 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlen Harris | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Aveion Cason | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Jones | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 19/29 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 22 | 96 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 7 | 2 | 0.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.02