Closing spread
KC -9
Total
36
Model margin
-0.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 12:33 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 6:19 | 11 | 46 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| KC | Q1 0:22 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 14:08 | 11 | 59 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| KC | Q2 7:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–7 |
| LV | Q2 6:24 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| KC | Q2 0:19 | 1 | -3 | End of half | 13–7 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 10:33 | 9 | 25 | Punt | 13–7 |
| KC | Q3 6:15 | 6 | 51 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| LV | Q3 2:43 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–10 |
| KC | Q3 1:10 | 12 | 65 | Missed field goal | 13–10 |
| LV | Q4 9:46 | 10 | 36 | Punt | 13–10 |
| KC | Q4 4:53 | 11 | 65 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| LV | Q4 1:32 | 7 | 66 | Turnover | 13–17 |
| KC | Q4 0:26 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 9/16 | 102 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 31 | 154 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Michael Bennett | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.