Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
36
Model margin
-1.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.197
- 43.1%Success rate38.3%
- +0.069EPA / dropback-0.178
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.231
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.4%
- +1.04CPOE+3.75
- 43.2%Third-down rate34.0%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.68Points / drive1.01
- 3.3%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 25/44 | 272 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 17/27 | 224 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Wright | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.33