Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
36
Model margin
-1.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.197
- 43.1%Success rate38.3%
- +0.069EPA / dropback-0.178
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.231
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.4%
- +1.04CPOE+3.75
- 43.2%Third-down rate34.0%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.68Points / drive1.01
- 3.3%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. CLE are 26-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 42 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 9:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 7:27 | 6 | 34 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 3:14 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 0:12 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 13:29 | 4 | 15 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q2 11:54 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q2 10:26 | 14 | 97 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 1:50 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CLE | Q2 0:32 | 6 | 12 | End of half | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CLE | Q3 13:14 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q3 9:42 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CLE | Q3 8:05 | 1 | 8 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q3 7:55 | 4 | 19 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| CLE | Q3 4:57 | 9 | 45 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| PIT | Q4 13:54 | 10 | 97 | Touchdown | 10–19 |
| CLE | Q4 9:33 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| PIT | Q4 9:21 | 17 | 62 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| CLE | Q4 4:14 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–20 |
| PIT | Q4 3:06 | 11 | 77 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
| CLE | Q4 0:32 | 4 | 35 | End of half | 24–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 25/44 | 272 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 17/27 | 224 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Wright | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.33