Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
+5.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.012
- 44.1%Success rate45.1%
- +0.021EPA / dropback+0.016
- +0.002EPA / rush+0.006
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.05CPOE+1.33
- 39.0%Third-down rate43.5%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.91Points / drive1.65
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 19/29 | 230 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 12 | 77 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 5 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Woods | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| David Bell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 13/29 | 195 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 23 | 80 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 3 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 10 | 38 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.95
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.74