2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

14·28

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

+5.7est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.012
  • 44.1%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback+0.016
  • +0.002EPA / rush+0.006
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +1.05CPOE+1.33
  • 39.0%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.65
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. PIT are 29-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W3PIT @ CLE17–29CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
CLEQ1 15:00530Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:281257Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 6:14528Punt0–0
PITQ1 3:00618Punt0–0
CLEQ1 0:44438Punt0–0
PITQ2 13:2944Punt0–0
CLEQ2 11:241166Touchdown7–0
PITQ2 6:271069Touchdown7–7
CLEQ2 1:4724Turnover7–7
PITQ2 1:11525Field goal7–10
CLEQ2 0:38424End of half7–10
PITQ3 15:001159Field goal7–13
CLEQ3 9:04613Turnover7–13
PITQ3 5:42625Touchdown7–20
CLEQ3 3:123-6Punt7–20
PITQ3 0:5732Punt7–20
CLEQ4 14:49872Touchdown14–20
PITQ4 10:111574Touchdown14–28
CLEQ4 4:371538Turnover on downs14–28

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson19/2923022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb12776.40
Deshaun Watson6447.30
Kareem Hunt4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper23510
Nick Chubb56451
David Njoku45421
Donovan Peoples-Jones24420
Harrison Bryant22200
Kareem Hunt34150
Mike Woods11150
David Bell0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett13/2919510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris23803.51
Jaylen Warren6366.00
Steven Sims11616.00
Gunner Olszewski242.00
Kenny Pickett310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens36721
Diontae Johnson210380
Zach Gentry11230
Najee Harris11100
Jaylen Warren3470
Pat Freiermuth0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.2%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.95
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.74