Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 8:34 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:34 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 7:28 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 6:27 | 11 | 104 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 0:08 | 14 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 8:17 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q2 6:34 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 5:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q2 4:16 | 8 | 96 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 0:34 | 2 | -5 | End of half | 7–14 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 23 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| LAC | Q3 10:48 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 7–24 |
| LAC | Q3 9:25 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| DEN | Q3 5:10 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–24 |
| LAC | Q3 4:41 | 3 | 58 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| DEN | Q3 3:51 | 14 | 60 | Field goal | 21–27 |
| LAC | Q4 11:13 | 7 | 55 | Touchdown | 28–27 |
| DEN | Q4 6:45 | 7 | 18 | Turnover | 28–27 |
| LAC | Q4 3:03 | 5 | 23 | Touchdown | 35–27 |
| DEN | Q4 1:14 | 6 | 32 | End of half | 35–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 13/28 | 183 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bell | 20 | 90 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Damien Nash | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.80
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.