Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
43
Model margin
+2.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.091
- 40.2%Success rate39.6%
- -0.031EPA / dropback-0.094
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.088
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.93CPOE-0.50
- 37.5%Third-down rate33.3%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
- 1.49Points / drive1.43
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:48 | 10 | 49 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 7:02 | 5 | 76 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 4:15 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SF | Q1 2:08 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q2 13:35 | 2 | -2 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| SF | Q2 12:53 | 5 | 40 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 10:11 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SF | Q2 7:26 | 5 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| SEA | Q2 4:14 | 1 | 18 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| SF | Q2 3:55 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| SF | Q3 12:46 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–20 |
| SEA | Q3 10:50 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–20 |
| SF | Q3 9:20 | 6 | 67 | Missed field goal | 7–20 |
| SEA | Q3 6:01 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 7–20 |
| SF | Q3 3:22 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 7–20 |
| SEA | Q3 0:08 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 7–20 |
| SF | Q4 13:28 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 7–20 |
| SEA | Q4 8:25 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| SF | Q4 6:40 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–20 |
| SEA | Q4 4:11 | 6 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 14–20 |
| SF | Q4 1:53 | 1 | 1 | Turnover | 14–20 |
| SEA | Q4 1:47 | 2 | -9 | Turnover | 14–20 |
| SF | Q4 1:18 | 4 | 25 | Missed field goal | 14–20 |
| SEA | Q4 0:34 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 14–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 19/31 | 252 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 17 | 37 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/25 | 163 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 24 | 212 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.20