Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
43
Model margin
+2.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.091
- 40.2%Success rate39.6%
- -0.031EPA / dropback-0.094
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.088
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.93CPOE-0.50
- 37.5%Third-down rate33.3%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
- 1.49Points / drive1.43
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 19/31 | 252 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 17 | 37 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/25 | 163 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 24 | 212 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.20