Closing spread
CAR -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
CAR lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 44.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:56 | 9 | 47 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:58 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 7:56 | 7 | 39 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 3:35 | 5 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 1:43 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q2 14:21 | 9 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q2 9:34 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 4:06 | 4 | -11 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q2 1:46 | 2 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:31 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q2 0:42 | 5 | 34 | End of half | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q3 11:40 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q3 9:39 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q3 7:59 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q3 6:28 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q3 4:21 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q3 3:08 | 3 | -9 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| LA | Q3 1:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CAR | Q4 14:50 | 11 | 71 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| LA | Q4 7:24 | 6 | 44 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| CAR | Q4 5:27 | 5 | 29 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| LA | Q4 2:54 | 2 | -2 | Safety | 0–15 |
| CAR | Q4 2:24 | 2 | 11 | End of half | 0–15 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 13/25 | 191 | 1 | 1 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 20 | 114 | 5.7 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 9 | 63 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.55
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.