Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
39
Model margin
+1.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.151
- 42.0%Success rate39.3%
- +0.036EPA / dropback-0.174
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.117
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- -3.07CPOE+1.13
- 39.4%Third-down rate33.2%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate45.1%
- 1.52Points / drive0.99
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 31/51 | 405 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 27/41 | 271 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 27 | 136 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ciatrick Fason | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.04