2006 · Week 12

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

13·17

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CAR -5.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCommanders
  • -0.071EPA / play-0.006
  • 41.2%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.034
  • -0.112EPA / rush-0.052
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -0.31CPOE-2.46
  • 31.1%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 1.29Points / drive1.58
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7CAR @ WAS7–40WAS
2021 · W11WAS @ CAR27–21WAS
2020 · W16CAR @ WAS20–13CAR
2019 · W13WAS @ CAR29–21WAS
2018 · W6CAR @ WAS17–23WAS
2016 · W15CAR @ WAS26–15CAR
2015 · W11WAS @ CAR16–44CAR
2012 · W9CAR @ WAS21–13CAR

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme23/3816812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams17633.70
Eric Shelton2168.00
Nick Goings2115.50
Steve Smith144.00

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell11/2311821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ladell Betts241044.30
T.J. Duckett7243.40
Mike Sellers11313.00
Jason Campbell471.80
Antwaan Randle El1-5-5.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.38
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.80