2006 · Week 12
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
CAR -5.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.006
- 41.2%Success rate40.9%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.034
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.052
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.8%
- -0.31CPOE-2.46
- 31.1%Third-down rate38.5%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.29Points / drive1.58
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:27 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 12:41 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 11:25 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 9:57 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 7:53 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| WAS | Q1 3:30 | 9 | 41 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q2 14:02 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| WAS | Q2 11:57 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q2 10:06 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| WAS | Q2 9:02 | 8 | 31 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| CAR | Q2 4:35 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 3–3 |
| WAS | Q2 1:43 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CAR | Q2 0:13 | 2 | 11 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–3 |
| WAS | Q3 13:19 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 6–3 |
| CAR | Q3 10:43 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–3 |
| WAS | Q3 8:43 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 6–3 |
| CAR | Q3 6:21 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–3 |
| WAS | Q3 4:04 | 7 | 36 | Touchdown | 6–10 |
| CAR | Q3 0:02 | 16 | 69 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| WAS | Q4 7:55 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| CAR | Q4 7:39 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–10 |
| WAS | Q4 5:51 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| CAR | Q4 4:26 | 7 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 13–17 |
| WAS | Q4 2:09 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–17 |
| CAR | Q4 1:40 | 3 | 30 | Turnover | 13–17 |
| WAS | Q4 0:55 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 23/38 | 168 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Eric Shelton | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 11/23 | 118 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 24 | 104 | 4.3 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.38
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.80