2006 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

30·0

Browns

Cleveland

QB Charlie Frye

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

44

Model margin

-0.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.044EPA / play-0.197
  • 45.3%Success rate38.3%
  • +0.138EPA / dropback-0.178
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.231
  • 9.2%Explosive rate6.4%
  • +5.38CPOE+3.75
  • 36.8%Third-down rate34.0%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
  • 1.98Points / drive1.01
  • 2.3%Turnover rate4.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer25/3227531
Anthony Wright2/22500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rudi Johnson25642.61
Kenny Watson5122.40
Chris Perry11010.00
Chad Johnson166.00
Carson Palmer122.00

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Frye18/2918604

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Harrison3186.00
Jason Wright5122.40
Dennis Northcutt199.00
Charlie Frye252.50
Reuben Droughns242.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.09