Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
44
Model margin
-0.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.197
- 45.3%Success rate38.3%
- +0.138EPA / dropback-0.178
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.231
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.4%
- +5.38CPOE+3.75
- 36.8%Third-down rate34.0%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.98Points / drive1.01
- 2.3%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 11:47 | 14 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q1 5:54 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 1:52 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| CLE | Q2 12:02 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–0 |
| CIN | Q2 10:51 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 14–0 |
| CLE | Q2 5:11 | 4 | 50 | Missed field goal | 14–0 |
| CIN | Q2 3:22 | 5 | 56 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| CLE | Q2 0:39 | 5 | 35 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 65 | Touchdown | 23–0 |
| CLE | Q3 10:36 | 8 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 23–0 |
| CIN | Q3 6:21 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 23–0 |
| CLE | Q3 4:58 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 23–0 |
| CIN | Q3 4:49 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 23–0 |
| CLE | Q3 2:54 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 23–0 |
| CIN | Q3 2:12 | 4 | 30 | Touchdown | 30–0 |
| CLE | Q4 14:56 | 8 | 29 | Turnover | 30–0 |
| CIN | Q4 11:53 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 30–0 |
| CLE | Q4 9:05 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 30–0 |
| CIN | Q4 7:15 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 30–0 |
| CLE | Q4 3:08 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 30–0 |
| CIN | Q4 1:51 | 3 | 8 | End of half | 30–0 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 25/32 | 275 | 3 | 1 |
| Anthony Wright | 2/2 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 25 | 64 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 18/29 | 186 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Harrison | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.09