Closing spread
KC -1
Total
39
Model margin
-0.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.009
- 40.7%Success rate41.1%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.050
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- -2.37CPOE+3.07
- 37.1%Third-down rate41.1%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.52Points / drive1.66
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 25/39 | 216 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bell | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Damien Nash | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 13/22 | 161 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 34 | 157 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 56 | 28.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Samie Parker | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.59