Closing spread
KC -1
Total
39
Model margin
-0.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.009
- 40.7%Success rate41.1%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.050
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- -2.37CPOE+3.07
- 37.1%Third-down rate41.1%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.52Points / drive1.66
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 14:04 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 9:35 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 6:57 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 5:34 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 2:03 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q2 15:00 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q2 10:44 | 15 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 3:03 | 11 | 70 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| KC | Q2 0:14 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 3–10 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 46 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| DEN | Q3 11:20 | 11 | 59 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| KC | Q3 6:21 | 11 | 59 | Field goal | 10–16 |
| DEN | Q4 14:56 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 10–16 |
| KC | Q4 11:58 | 5 | 40 | Turnover | 10–16 |
| DEN | Q4 9:20 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–16 |
| KC | Q4 7:54 | 9 | 91 | Field goal | 10–19 |
| DEN | Q4 2:42 | 6 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 10–19 |
| KC | Q4 1:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 25/39 | 216 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bell | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Damien Nash | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 13/22 | 161 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 34 | 157 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 56 | 28.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Samie Parker | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.59