Closing spread
SEA -10
Total
42
Model margin
+2.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play-0.075
- 40.0%Success rate40.2%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- -5.72CPOE-1.93
- 38.9%Third-down rate37.5%
- 36.6%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.28Points / drive1.49
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. SEA are 4-12-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/36 | 266 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Vernand Morency | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/36 | 157 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 40 | 201 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.22