Closing spread
SEA -10
Total
42
Model margin
+2.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play-0.075
- 40.0%Success rate40.2%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- -5.72CPOE-1.93
- 38.9%Third-down rate37.5%
- 36.6%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.28Points / drive1.49
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. SEA are 4-12-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 14:12 | 4 | 36 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:42 | 6 | 42 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 10:35 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:39 | 10 | 45 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| GB | Q1 3:35 | 6 | 54 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q1 0:38 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| GB | Q2 14:54 | 4 | 18 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q2 12:31 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| GB | Q2 8:36 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–6 |
| SEA | Q2 6:55 | 8 | 25 | Field goal | 7–9 |
| GB | Q2 3:34 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–9 |
| SEA | Q2 2:29 | 2 | -8 | Opp touchdown | 14–9 |
| SEA | Q2 1:51 | 8 | 30 | Field goal | 14–12 |
| GB | Q2 0:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–12 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 72 | Touchdown | 21–12 |
| SEA | Q3 12:39 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 21–12 |
| GB | Q3 10:59 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–12 |
| SEA | Q3 9:52 | 10 | 57 | Touchdown | 21–19 |
| GB | Q3 6:19 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 21–19 |
| SEA | Q3 4:37 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 21–27 |
| GB | Q4 14:11 | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 24–27 |
| SEA | Q4 10:50 | 12 | 36 | Touchdown | 24–34 |
| GB | Q4 6:13 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 24–34 |
| SEA | Q4 5:58 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–34 |
| GB | Q4 4:20 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 24–34 |
| SEA | Q4 3:39 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 24–34 |
| GB | Q4 2:31 | 12 | 52 | Turnover | 24–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/36 | 266 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Vernand Morency | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/36 | 157 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 40 | 201 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.22