Closing spread
NYJ -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play-0.019
- 43.2%Success rate43.0%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.110
- 6.8%Explosive rate6.5%
- +4.14CPOE+2.38
- 38.7%Third-down rate44.6%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.41Points / drive1.74
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. NYJ are 8-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 14:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 12:27 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 10:45 | 12 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 4:34 | 6 | 44 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| HOU | Q1 1:25 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:28 | 9 | 32 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| HOU | Q2 9:46 | 9 | 53 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 4:59 | 9 | 38 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| HOU | Q2 1:09 | 8 | 34 | Missed field goal | 3–9 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–9 |
| NYJ | Q3 12:19 | 7 | 91 | Touchdown | 3–16 |
| HOU | Q3 9:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 3–16 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:25 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 3–16 |
| HOU | Q3 5:16 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–16 |
| NYJ | Q3 5:06 | 4 | 26 | Touchdown | 3–23 |
| HOU | Q3 3:33 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–23 |
| NYJ | Q3 1:32 | 13 | 43 | Field goal | 3–26 |
| HOU | Q4 8:05 | 12 | 71 | Touchdown | 11–26 |
| NYJ | Q4 3:54 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 11–26 |
| HOU | Q4 3:27 | 13 | 92 | End of half | 11–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 39/54 | 321 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wali Lundy | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 24/31 | 286 | 1 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Cedric Houston | 11 | 13 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 8 | 5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.75