Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.230
- 41.4%Success rate35.6%
- +0.063EPA / dropback-0.250
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.191
- 9.8%Explosive rate6.2%
- -1.53CPOE-5.18
- 37.7%Third-down rate25.5%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.01
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. NYJ are 8-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 10/23 | 91 | 0 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 1/5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Dameon Pierce | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brevin Jordan | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 27/36 | 301 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Nick Bawden | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Israel Abanikanda | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 9 | 14 | 108 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 8 | 9 | 86 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.79