2023 · Week 14

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

6·30

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 58°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

33.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJets
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.230
  • 41.4%Success rate35.6%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback-0.250
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.191
  • 9.8%Explosive rate6.2%
  • -1.53CPOE-5.18
  • 37.7%Third-down rate25.5%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate39.2%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.01
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. NYJ are 8-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9HOU @ NYJ13–21NYJ
2021 · W12NYJ @ HOU21–14NYJ
2018 · W15HOU @ NYJ29–22HOU
2015 · W11NYJ @ HOU17–24HOU
2012 · W5HOU @ NYJ23–17HOU
2010 · W11HOU @ NYJ27–30NYJ
2009 · W1NYJ @ HOU24–7NYJ
2006 · W12HOU @ NYJ11–26NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NYJ
HOUQ1 15:00521Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:18954Punt0–0
HOUQ1 5:48712Punt0–0
NYJQ1 1:43411Punt0–0
HOUQ2 14:426-8Punt0–0
NYJQ2 11:43833Punt0–0
HOUQ2 7:0537Punt0–0
NYJQ2 5:3432Punt0–0
HOUQ2 4:3646Punt0–0
NYJQ2 2:5031Punt0–0
HOUQ2 1:52625Punt0–0
NYJQ2 0:0200End of half0–0
NYJQ3 15:00780Touchdown0–7
HOUQ3 11:053-4Punt0–7
NYJQ3 9:33959Touchdown0–14
HOUQ3 4:3134Punt0–14
NYJQ3 3:35431Turnover0–14
HOUQ3 1:20550Touchdown6–14
NYJQ4 15:001075Touchdown6–21
HOUQ4 9:2748Turnover on downs6–21
NYJQ4 8:113-1Field goal6–24
HOUQ4 6:5146Turnover on downs6–24
NYJQ4 6:1344Field goal6–27
HOUQ4 4:3041Turnover on downs6–27
NYJQ4 3:183-1Field goal6–30
HOUQ4 1:0827End of half6–30

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud10/239100
Davis Mills1/5400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary13655.01
Dameon Pierce492.30
Dare Ogunbowale273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brevin Jordan33350
Xavier Hutchinson23150
Nico Collins11130
John Metchie III1560
Dare Ogunbowale1240
Noah Brown0500
Devin Singletary0300
Robert Woods13-20
Dameon Pierce11-20

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson27/3630120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall10404.00
Dalvin Cook7131.90
Zach Wilson3124.00
Xavier Gipson199.01
Nick Bawden133.00
Garrett Wilson133.00
Israel Abanikanda3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson9141080
Breece Hall89861
Tyler Conklin46570
Jeremy Ruckert33370
Randall Cobb11151
Xavier Gipson1130
Dalvin Cook11-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

40.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.79