Closing spread
HOU -9.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play-0.101
- 43.9%Success rate41.7%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.139
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.054
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.02CPOE-5.39
- 38.1%Third-down rate36.9%
- 59.2%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 1.89Points / drive1.20
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. NYJ are 8-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 14/28 | 209 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 29 | 152 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| DeVier Posey | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 5 | 79 | 1 |
| James Casey | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 14/31 | 230 | 1 | 2 |
| Tim Tebow | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 5 | 9 | 94 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 2 | 4 | 51 | 1 |
| Chaz Schilens | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 1 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Konrad Reuland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.57