2012 · Week 5

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

23·17

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

HOU -9.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJets
  • +0.069EPA / play-0.101
  • 43.9%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.139
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.054
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.02CPOE-5.39
  • 38.1%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 59.2%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.20
  • 1.5%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. NYJ are 8-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9HOU @ NYJ13–21NYJ
2023 · W14HOU @ NYJ6–30NYJ
2021 · W12NYJ @ HOU21–14NYJ
2018 · W15HOU @ NYJ29–22HOU
2015 · W11NYJ @ HOU17–24HOU
2010 · W11HOU @ NYJ27–30NYJ
2009 · W1NYJ @ HOU24–7NYJ
2006 · W12HOU @ NYJ11–26NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NYJ
HOUQ1 15:00885Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 11:05313Punt7–0
HOUQ1 9:5332Punt7–0
NYJQ1 8:2330Punt7–0
HOUQ1 7:213-3Turnover7–0
NYJQ1 5:54457Touchdown7–7
HOUQ1 4:07451Punt7–7
NYJQ1 1:42712Punt7–7
HOUQ2 13:56567Touchdown14–7
NYJQ2 11:11710Punt14–7
HOUQ2 8:30944Punt14–7
NYJQ2 4:211074Turnover14–7
HOUQ2 0:1420Field goal17–7
NYJQ3 15:00312Punt17–7
HOUQ3 12:331370Field goal20–13
NYJQ3 4:5100Touchdown20–14
HOUQ3 4:38742Field goal23–14
NYJQ3 0:13774Field goal23–17
HOUQ4 11:5544Punt23–17
NYJQ4 9:59618Punt23–17
HOUQ4 6:29421Punt23–17
NYJQ4 3:28716Turnover23–17
HOUQ4 1:513-5Punt23–17
NYJQ4 0:0410End of half23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub14/2820911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster291525.21
Keshawn Martin11414.00
Justin Forsett461.50
DeVier Posey1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Owen Daniels45791
James Casey44530
Kevin Walter46460
Arian Foster14160
Andre Johnson16150
Garrett Graham0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez14/3123012
Tim Tebow0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene8263.30
Tim Tebow5193.80
Bilal Powell4184.50
Joe McKnight451.30
Mark Sanchez210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley59940
Jeff Cumberland24511
Chaz Schilens45290
Clyde Gates13270
Shonn Greene12190
Jason Hill12100
Bilal Powell0400
Konrad Reuland0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.57